Marty Kendall

From Hopium to Fundamentals: The Smart Way to Value BTC-T Companies

After a ballistic debut, Bitcoin Treasury Companies (BTC-TCs) have hit their first real test. Once the hottest trade on the market, the sector has crashed hard — with many companies now trading at mNAVs below 1. Investors piled in early to ride Bitcoin’s momentum, chasing leveraged exposure without the risk

Halving Hype vs. Macro Reality: Why Bitcoin Is Set to Catch Up Fast

Every four years, the crypto world holds its breath for the next Bitcoin halving — a ritual countdown often credited with triggering explosive rallies followed by massive crashes. But… this ‘cycle’ has been underwhelming, to say the least.   Even Uptoper has been renamed ‘Voltober’.  Many are wondering whether the four-year stock-to-flow

The Business Cycle Bitcoin Amplifier

Many factors appear to correlate with Bitcoin’s moves, like: ·         halvings, ·         election cycles, ·         gold, ·         global liquidity (M2), ·         the hash rate, and ·         the S&P 500. But, when you remove the noise, which of these truly matter? Our latest analysis suggests the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) — a key gauge

The Great Bitcoin Reset: Pain, Purge, and Setup for the Next Rip?

After the two-day “Trump Tariff V2” crash, Bitcoin reminded everyone that it can be volatile — it was just taking a nap. The sudden drop cleared a mountain of leveraged positions, resetting the market and setting the stage for an intriguing Q4. No one has a short-term crystal ball. Like everyone

Unpacking mNAV: Why BTC Yield Matters Most

With our upcoming rebrand to mNAV.com imminent, it’s a perfect moment to unpack the question everyone in the Bitcoin Treasury Company (BTC-TC) space is wrestling with: What really drives mNAV? The answer isn’t as complicated as it might seem. At its core, BTC Yield is the engine

The Lookback Edge: How Optimising Yield Windows Turned 5x into 59x

Everyone agrees that BTC Yield — the change in bitcoin per share — is the ultimate scorecard for Bitcoin Treasury Companies (BTC-TCs). But what often goes unnoticed is how we measure it. The length of the lookback window — whether 30 days, 90 days, or a full year — can completely change the signal.

BTC-TCs After the Pullback: Where mNAV Meets Opportunity

·         Bitcoin has cooled from ~$124k to ~$107k, but still sits just above its long-term power-law trend (57th percentile). ·         Our models (M2 + hash rate + S&P) point to a ~$122k as a current “fair value” for BTC vs. broader markets. ·         The June pivot aligned with a sharp ETH/BTC upswing;

A Quantitative Playbook for Investing in Bitcoin Treasury Companies

Bitcoin Treasury Companies (BTC-TCs) are rewriting the rules of financial engineering. Inspired by Michael Saylor—an aeronautical engineer turned corporate strategist—the BTC-TC model represents a departure from traditional finance. It exploits inefficiencies in the fiat system and requires us to model it not as a financial instrument, but as

Is Bitcoin Winter Cancelled? Why This Cycle Feels Different

Every four years, like clockwork, the Bitcoin crowd gathers around the charts, waiting for history to rhyme, praying for the legendary 'God candle'. But this time… feels like it might be different. Cycles that once felt reliable — halvings, annual seasonality, even election-fuelled liquidity bursts — are showing signs of

Inside the Engine Room: How Our BTC-TC Portfolios Power Growth

In this article, we take a closer look under the hood of our BTC-TC portfolio system to help you understand why some companies earn a higher weighting than others—and how our strategies adapt dynamically to market movements. What Drives Our Rankings? A Look at Portfolio Weightings We’ve created

S-Curves and Sats: Decoding the Future of Bitcoin Treasury Growth

Lately, I’ve been laser-focused on one thing: understanding the future growth of Bitcoin Treasury Companies (BTC-TCs). My initial piece — The Half-Life of Bitcoin Treasury Companies — received plenty of ‘constructive’ feedback. But, ironically, since then, we've seen significant mNAV compression, with many BTC-TCs pulling back by over 50%

Bitcoin: Flatlining or Coiling to Strike?

For what’s meant to be a notoriously volatile asset, Bitcoin has been... well, unusually boring lately—especially for those of us used to the high-octane world of Bitcoin Treasury Companies (BTC-TCs). But zoom out, and a clearer picture emerges. Bitcoin Still Dancing with the Power Law Bitcoin has been

Rocket Fuel or Vapour? What the Shape of BTC Growth Tells Us for BTC-TCs

People love watching rocket launches. Why? Because you never really know what's going to happen — will they soar to the moon, drift aimlessly, or explode on the launch pad? The same goes for Bitcoin treasury companies (BTC-TCs). Early excitement is thrilling, but it’s what happens after takeoff

The Half-Life of Bitcoin Treasury Companies

“It’s going up forever, Laura.”  Michael Saylor While this might be true for Bitcoin, Bitcoin treasury companies are different.  They’re not Bitcoin. Investors pay a premium for companies that can stack the fastest.  “It’s going up forever, Laura.”  Michael Saylor While this might be true for Bitcoin,

All-Time Highs – Where to Next?

With Bitcoin smashing through its previous all-time highs, we’re entering what some call the fun zone. But where to next?  Are we reaching our peak or just getting started?   In this issue, we zoom out to examine the broader macro trends shaping Bitcoin’s future—and provide the latest

BTC Yield vs. Gravity: Which Treasury Companies Will Keep Climbing?

In the race to become the ultimate Bitcoin treasury, fast stackers earn the spotlight—and the highest premiums. Investors love companies that grow their BTC per share rapidly. Why? Because higher BTC Yield supercharges mNAV (multiple of net asset value), and share price follows — rocket fuel for market hype. But

Mapping the Lifecycle of a Bitcoin Treasury Company: From Hype to Hard Collateral

Bitcoin treasury companies follow a distinct lifecycle: they start in the top right of our chart—small but explosive—and, ideally, drift slowly but steadily toward the bottom left, loaded up with as much BTC as possible to wield as hard collateral in the financial system of the future. Whether

Spot the Next MSTR Before It Moons: How to Find the Purest Bitcoin Plays

Imagine spotting the next MSTR before the rocket takes off. With our system, you can. This article explains the model fit metric—the first filter in our quantitative, agnostic, data-driven system. What Defines a Pure Bitcoin Play? Many companies today hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets, but few can be

The Hidden Dangers of Bitcoin Treasury Companies: What Smart Investors Watch For

Bitcoin treasury stocks may be the fastest way to make money in the coming gold rush, but they’re far from risk-free. In this article, we break down the biggest threats investors need to keep an eye out for—and how to use the right tools to protect your gains.

BTC Treasuries, Power Law Projections & the Global Stacking Race Heats Up

Welcome to the third edition of MicroStrategist Weekly—your go-to source for cutting-edge insights on the Bitcoin treasury revolution. As companies across the globe, from Tokyo to Surrey, race to stack BTC, we’re here to chart the winners, flag the risks, and spotlight the hidden gems driving this financial

Stacking Velocity & Market Signals: The Next Phase of the Bitcoin Treasury Boom

While headlines churn and noise rises, we stay focused on the metrics that matter — stacking velocity, fair value signals, and emerging leaders. This week’s update brings sharper models, new contenders, and key insights into which companies are accelerating their BTC per share… and which ones risk being left behind.

The Great Bitcoin Stacking Race: Who’s Leading and What’s Next?

Get ready to dive into the rapidly evolving world of companies stacking Bitcoin at breakneck speed! In this first edition of the MicroStrategist newsletter, we’ll decode what’s driving the biggest Bitcoin accumulators, highlight new contenders turning heads, and reveal how to spot the next fastest horse. Whether you’

Stack Smarter: The Power of Days to Cover mNAV for Bitcoin Equities

What if I told you you could have 100x’d your portfolio over the last year with no leverage? The secret lies in the Days to Cover mNAV indicator—an under-the-radar metric that reveals which Bitcoin-leveraged equities are poised to outperform the market. This powerful tool has been getting a

Has the MSTR Ballistic Acceleration Model Broken?

Bitcoin just reached new all-time highs, but MSTR didn’t follow. Some are asking if the Ballistic Acceleration Model is broken.   TLDR:  The model isn’t broken, but there are some other important factors to consider.   Quick Take: The Model Works—But the Game Has Changed ·         Velocity of BTC stacking

Is the mNAV Worth It? Introducing “Days to Cover mNAV”

When investors pay a premium over a company’s Bitcoin per-share value, they’re not just buying Bitcoin—they’re betting on future accumulation. This premium is reflected in the multiple of net asset value (mNAV). A company with an mNAV of 2.0 is trading at twice the value